Nice thinking, but I do hope you are wrong. I hate the "twins" explanation, it would be so terribly cheesy. I was so happy when Holmes roared "it is never twins!"
I agree, kind of. I also thought this bit seemed to hint more towards a twin theory than away from one too, but it also made the point that it would be surprising, and while it may rarely be twins, to say it can never be twins is a bit of an overstatement. In any case, if it is twins, I trust they'll somehow manage to pull that off too. This show has achieved a lot of things that would have been cheesy in other shows.
It's not my favourite theory, and while I'd usually say it should be ruled out by default, the fact that Sherlock is ruling it out so immediately (even though this theory is technically from his own mind - or at least his idea of what Watson would theorise) is what really makes me wonder if that's the very reason the case is yet to be solved. I'm certainly considering it more since watching this special.